How we calculate our Speed\Pace figs
   
There are many different ways to evaluate pace. Like each factor considered, pace
is either more OR less important - in the context of the race conditions. Distance,
surface and class level for the rated race can help determine how much weight the
pace factor will carry in relation to the final outcome.

Pace is the most dynamic factor. No two races can present the same pace scenario,
for there are too many variables to predict in advance. It’s extremely difficult to
assign a number that can accurately tell you the pace from past races, but it
cannot be ignored. Using a pace rating from past races to predict the pace scenario
for a future race is even more difficult.

The pace rating from a past race should reflect how each runner effected the way
that race was run. When a runner is added or removed from consideration when
making ratings, you need to determine how much influence that horse may have
had in relation to the pace of that race.

We apply pace ratings to the selection sheets in a unique manner. In an effort to
minimize the randomness of pace ratings and the confusion they might cause as a
standalone figure we add weighted factors to the pace rating. Pace ratings are not
allowed to have the most influence in the final ratings compiled.

Our Speed/Pace ratings are more than the name implies. Our Speed/Pace number
is a combined rating that takes into account all of the listed factors below and then
some.

Class Par
Track Profiles/ Pace Modeling
Track to Track Adjustments
Par Time Adjustments

Thorostats Class Par is used as our starting point of reference when making the
calculations of this rating. Once our rating is compiled we expect that our horse
can compete in today’s class if his rating is within 1 point above or below today’s
class level. For example if our horse earns a rating of 105 at Turfway then we can
assume this horse is capable of competing with horse’s that run in the same class
between 104-106 at TP or any other track.

We use a Track profile or Pace model, factored on the basic conditions of track,
sex, distance, surface and class levels, to determine the winning pace scenario’s
for the horse’s race and track being calculated. This profiled model will use either
the horse’s first call rating or second call rating, depending on which is performing
best in the profile. The final calculation for the profiled point of call we use is then
adjusted by points above or below our “track par” of the modeled profile.

Track to track adjustments are actually made by the use of our class par charts.
Example: Today’s race is at CD for Clm 10,000 or a Thorostats class rating of 100.
Our horse ships in from RD for today’s race. In order to be competitive with this
class at CD, our horse should have been competing with horses at RD for around
20 to 30K.
graphic

Finally we calculate our Par Time Adjustments to include final call and the
modeled profile call used in preparation of our final rating of Speed/Pace. This
figure is derived by using our track pars. The par time is adjusted for the class
level of the race. So a par time for a race at the class level of 101 would be 1/5 of
a second faster than the track par, which is assigned a level of 100. Therefore take
every point above 100 and subtract 1/5 second to determine the par time for that
race. For every point below 100 add 1/5 of a second to get the par time for that
race.

We will show you an example of how we go about calculating our Speed/Pace
ratings.

The class par for his last race was 104.

We now find the modeled profile for the track the horse raced in, which in this case
is second call. Remember the final rating or time of a modeled profile point of call
is adjusted by the points above or below our par for this type of race.

Today’s horse is a shipper so our program searches for our “class par” ranking
of that horse, using the track and purse level in which the horse last ran in order
to make our track to track adjustment. Our final number is calculated by this track
class par which actually gives us our track to track adjustments.

Finally we calculate our par time adjustments by using the horses modeled pace
call and final call and calculate our pars for those calls. We then calculate the
horse’s actual time of a race and add or subtract 1/5 second above or below the
par of the particular call we are using. In our last step we use the horse’s track
class for the race we are calculating and add/subtract to or from that number.
Once those numbers are determined they are averaged together for the final
rating.

For a closer look:

This is a major portion of how our speed numbers are calculated. There is one
other proprietary algorithm we use to finish up our rating which allows us to
monitor, tweak and fine tune our rating periodically.

We have strived to present information and ratings in a manner that is not
consistent with other popular methods. We are completely aware that using
information that is readily available to all others will not yield profitable results.
We know that is not what you are looking for in your racing information. Use
Thorostats ratings with the confidence that comes from looking at the races from a
different perspective than the general public.